2025 EV Sales Decline, 2026 New Models, Charger Tax Credit Deadline

Introduction

As 2025 ends, the U.S. electric vehicle market records its first annual sales decline since 2019, while 2026 promises an unprecedented wave of new EV models and critical deadlines for property owners. American EV sales are projected to finish at 1.275 million units, down 2.1 percent from 2024, driven by policy volatility and the September expiration of federal tax credits. Yet consumer interest remains steady at 25 percent of new car shoppers, and over 20 new electric models arrive in 2026. At Shaffer Construction, Inc., we help Los Angeles property owners navigate this evolving landscape with commercial EV charger installations and residential charging solutions. This New Year's Eve we examine what 2025 taught us and what 2026 holds for EV charging infrastructure.

U.S. EV Sales Decline 2.1 Percent in First Drop Since 2019

Cox Automotive projects Americans will purchase approximately 1.275 million electric vehicles in 2025, representing a 2.1 percent decline from the 1.3 million units sold in 2024. This marks the first annual decline in U.S. EV sales since the early years of the modern EV market. EVs will comprise 7.8 percent of all cars sold this year, down from 8.1 percent in 2024, while overall vehicle sales grew 2 percent. The year was defined by extreme volatility driven by policy changes. Source: InsideEVs.

The volatility was stark: EV sales hit an all-time high of 11.6 percent market share in September 2025 as buyers rushed to capture the federal tax credit before its September 30 expiration. Then sales crashed 50 percent in October. The fourth quarter saw approximately 230,000 EVs sold, representing a 46 percent drop from Q3 and 37 percent decline year over year. EVs accounted for just 5.7 percent of total vehicle sales during the quarter. Source: NPR.

Despite the sales decline, consumer interest remains resilient. According to J.D. Power, approximately 25 percent of new car shoppers remain very interested in buying an EV, holding consistent despite the turbulence. Notably, EV owners are 94 percent likely to repurchase another EV for their next vehicle. As we noted in our coverage of global EV sales growing 21 percent, the U.S. experience diverges from stronger international markets.

Over 20 New Electric Models Arrive in 2026

The 2026 model year brings an unprecedented flood of new electric vehicles to American showrooms. The 2027 Chevrolet Bolt returns in early 2026 at a starting price of 28,995 dollars with GM's Ultium battery technology, delivering DC fast-charging speeds 2.5 times faster than the previous Bolt and 255 miles of range. Toyota refreshes the bZ4X with 338 horsepower and 314 miles of range, a 50 percent power increase and 62-mile range improvement over current models. The new Woodland version arriving early 2026 boasts 375 horsepower and standard all-wheel drive. Source: Electrive.

Honda launches its electric era with three premium vehicles: the Honda 0 Series SUV, 0 Series Saloon, and Acura RSX. All three use Honda's new ASIMO software stack with AI-powered virtual assistance, built on the same software-defined architecture at Honda's Ohio factory. The Acura RSX arrives in the second half of 2026 with a dual-motor all-wheel-drive powertrain. Toyota also introduces an all-electric C-HR compact crossover making 338 horsepower with motors at each axle, 290 miles of range, and the NACS charging port for Supercharger access. Source: InsideEVs.

The wave of new models addresses a key consumer barrier: limited selection. By late 2026, approximately 16 electric models will be available under 42,000 dollars, compared to half that number currently. As we discussed in our analysis of affordable EVs arriving in 2026, the expanding selection accelerates adoption among mainstream buyers who will seek charging access at their homes and workplaces.

China EV Price War Intensifies as Subsidies End January 2026

China's electric vehicle market faces a survival test in 2026 as the intense price war continues and subsidies get cut in half. Starting January 1, 2026, China's NEV purchase tax exemption drops from a maximum 30,000 yuan (4,200 dollars) waiver to just 15,000 yuan (2,100 dollars), with the exemption disappearing entirely by 2028. Bloomberg Intelligence estimates China's NEV growth will slow from 27 percent in 2025 to just 13 percent in 2026. UBS expects the price war to continue for years. Source: CNBC.

Market leader BYD reported a 5.1 percent sales decline through November 2025 compared to the prior year, with November alone falling 26.5 percent. The price war BYD ignited has become industry-wide: the company slashed prices by up to 34 percent on 22 models in May, triggering margin compression across competitors. Autohome data shows extreme markdowns including 432,000 yuan off the Mercedes-Benz EQS EV and 147,000 yuan off the Volvo XC70. Market concentration has increased sharply, with the top ten manufacturers now accounting for approximately 95 percent of China's NEV market, up from 60-70 percent just two years ago.

Slowing domestic demand is pushing Chinese automakers to expand aggressively overseas. BYD exported over 131,000 cars in November alone and is building factories in Hungary, Turkey, and potentially Spain to neutralize EU tariffs. The company plans to invest up to 20 billion dollars in Europe over coming years. For U.S. property owners, Chinese market dynamics indirectly influence American pricing as global competition intensifies. However, high tariffs prevent direct Chinese EV sales in the United States.

Federal Charger Tax Credit Expires June 2026

Property owners considering EV charging infrastructure face a critical deadline: the federal Alternative Fuel Vehicle Refueling Property Credit expires on June 30, 2026. The 30C tax credit provides up to 1,000 dollars for residential installations covering 30 percent of costs, while businesses may qualify for up to 100,000 dollars per installed charging port. After June 2026, no federal tax incentive will support charger installations unless Congress acts. Source: EnergySage.

California continues offering robust state and utility incentives beyond the federal deadline. The Clean Cars 4 All program provides up to 12,000 dollars for qualifying lower-income residents to replace older vehicles with EVs, plus up to 2,000 dollars for charging equipment. PG&E and SDG&E customers may receive up to 4,000 dollars in rebates for pre-owned EV purchases. Santa Barbara Clean Energy's residential program runs through June 30, 2026, offering 1,500 dollar base incentives for battery electric vehicles with income-driven rebates up to 4,000 dollars. Source: DriveClean California.

For Los Angeles property owners, the combination of the federal charger credit deadline and ongoing California utility rebates creates an optimal window for installation in the first half of 2026. Shaffer Construction helps property owners maximize available incentives through comprehensive electrical load studies that assess capacity and plan installations to meet program requirements and timelines.

2026 Charging Infrastructure Predictions and Trends

Industry analysts project continued evolution in EV charging infrastructure throughout 2026. The U.S. public charging network reached approximately 230,000 connectors in 2025, with private-sector deployment finally meeting consumer needs despite federal funding uncertainty. Forecasters predict charging stations will increasingly locate at places where people already spend time: workplaces, shopping centers, and recreational areas, making charging more convenient and less disruptive to daily routines. Source: Driivz.

Artificial intelligence is becoming critical for managing charging infrastructure profitably. As charging demand increases and energy costs fluctuate, AI enables scalable energy management that optimizes when vehicles charge based on grid conditions and electricity pricing. Charging-as-a-Service models are emerging as game-changing solutions, allowing third-party providers to own, install, operate, and maintain charging infrastructure while site hosts pay predictable fees rather than bearing capital costs upfront. Source: ACDI.

Cox Automotive expects 2026 EV sales to remain roughly flat at 1.3 million units and around 8.5 percent market share. The policy changes created a reset moment, but the transition continues on a different timeline than anticipated. As we covered in our analysis of Walmart's charging network expansion, major retailers are investing heavily in charging infrastructure regardless of near-term sales volatility, signaling confidence in long-term EV adoption.

What 2025 Taught Us and What 2026 Means for Property Owners

The 2025 U.S. EV market demonstrated both fragility and resilience. Policy changes triggered dramatic swings in quarterly sales, yet underlying consumer interest held steady. The 94 percent repurchase rate among EV owners confirms that once drivers experience electric vehicles, they rarely return to gasoline. The 25 percent of new car shoppers expressing strong EV interest represents a substantial and durable market regardless of quarterly fluctuations.

For 2026, property owners face a compelling opportunity. Over 20 new EV models will reach showrooms, expanding the potential driver population beyond early adopters. The 2027 Chevy Bolt at under 29,000 dollars and the refreshed Toyota bZ4X with 314 miles of range address the affordability and range concerns that previously limited adoption. Properties that install charging infrastructure now will serve this expanding market.

The federal charger tax credit deadline of June 2026 creates urgency for action. Combined with California's ongoing utility rebates and state programs, the first half of 2026 offers the most favorable incentive environment property owners will see. After June, federal support disappears. Properties that act before the deadline capture maximum value while positioning for the EV expansion ahead.

Conclusion

As 2025 ends with the first U.S. EV sales decline since 2019, the broader trajectory toward electrification remains clear. Consumer interest holds at 25 percent of new car shoppers, EV owner repurchase intent stands at 94 percent, and over 20 new models arrive in 2026 addressing affordability and selection gaps. The U.S. charging network reached 230,000 public connectors in 2025 through private-sector leadership. For Los Angeles property owners, the federal charger tax credit expiring June 30, 2026 creates a clear action window. Properties that install charging infrastructure in the first half of 2026 capture federal and state incentives while preparing for the wave of new EVs and buyers entering the market. Shaffer Construction wishes our clients and community a prosperous new year and stands ready to help property owners navigate this transition.

Ready to explore EV charging options for your Los Angeles property? Contact Shaffer Construction, Inc. for a complimentary site assessment and expert guidance on selecting the right charging solution for your needs.

Shaffer Construction, Inc.
325 N Larchmont Blvd. #202
Los Angeles, CA 90004
Phone: (323) 642-8509
Email: hello@shaffercon.com
Website: www.shaffercon.com